December Diesel Price: Why an Increase Is Still on the Cards

There’s been a slight sigh of relief on the fuel markets this week. The daily under-recovery on D50, has eased compared to last week on the back of falling international prices. This is softening what was looking like a painful December increase. But before anyone thinks we’re out of the woods, let’s take a closer look at what the numbers actually mean for transporters and fleet owners.
And honestly? The picture is still leaning heavily towards a solid increase.

A Softer Curve, but Still Pointing Upwards

Daily price movements can feel exciting, especially when they start shifting in the right direction. That’s what we’ve seen since late last week – those sharp under-recoveries have started dipping, almost like the market’s hit a small breather.

The November D50 daily price tracker tells the story clearly. Despite volatility, the first two weeks showed a gradually decreasing trend, until international D50 prices spiked dramatically in the third week. However, this week has given transporters and fleet managers some hope, with international prices softening significantly over the last few days. 

But you know what? The averages are, unfortunately,  the real drivers of month-end adjustments. Tracking the averages makes  that excitement fade a little.

Why the Average Matters More Than the Daily Swings

Daily under-recoveries are like potholes: one or two don’t ruin the whole trip. But dozens over a long stretch? They add up.

Even if the daily under-recovery continues dropping until the end of November, the accumulated impact on the average, built up over the month,  remains steep. The early-month trend, although downward, was simply too high, with the sharp mid month spike adding to the woes.  You can soften the slope, but you can’t erase the climb.

So the projected increase for December… Well, it’s still significant.

And that’s the uncomfortable reality many operators already know too well. A few good days in the fuel market don’t cancel out the weeks that came before.



What Transporters Should Keep in Mind

Price pressure in December is nothing new, but this year’s setup has a few layers that deserve attention:

  • The international fuel market is volatile, and  indications are that it will remain so in the short term.

  • Local currency trends is relatively stable, but continues pulling the rope the wrong way.

  • Seasonal demand across global supply chains often nudges diesel prices upwards as the year wraps up.

Put those together and you get a December outlook that’s more “hold tight” than “maybe it’ll ease”.

And yes, December is traditionally one of the toughest months to plan around: longer routes, tighter delivery windows, busier drivers and heavier costs. A strong increase only adds to that pressure.

So What Does This Mean for December Refuelling?

Transport businesses should brace for a meaningful diesel increase at the start of December 2025. It may not be as extreme as last week’s projections suggested, but it won’t be mild either.

The good news? Awareness gives you a head start.

Maximising bulk stock levels before price change is a must. Congestion at loading gantries will delay loading of bulk fuel vehicles, so replenishing now will save you the heartache of late deliveries later. Some fleets may bring forward long-haul refuelling while prices still sit lower. Others might plan tighter around their December budgets, adjust route densities or stretch delivery clusters to compensate for higher fuel spend.

Seasoned transporters know this drill but it doesn’t make it less frustrating.

Final Thoughts: Plan Ahead, Stay Sharp

Fuel price swings aren’t new, but they’re always felt. And with a solid increase still expected for December, planning becomes even more important. This is where TFN makes a real difference.

Bulk fuel deliveries have already been anticipated for, and are in full swing. With the TFN Route Planner and live depot pricing, you can make informed decisions that keep costs under control, choosing the right routes, the right stops and the most cost-effective refuelling points. It removes the guesswork and gives you clarity when the market doesn’t.

And you’re not facing it alone. TFN stays with you through every cycle, helping you run smarter, steadier and more cost-aware.

The increase may be coming, but with TFN by your side, you’re better prepared for it.

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