Fuel Costs & Volatility: August’s Punch and September’s Promise

Doesn’t it feel like every month fuel costs throw a curveball? One moment there’s a slight dip, the next it’s a steep climb that rattles every fleet budget. August was no different, in fact, it was a mixed bag that left many transporters frustrated.

August: A Win for Petrol, A Blow for Diesel

In early August, petrol drivers breathed easier with a 28c/litre drop on 93 and 95 octane. But diesel fleets (the backbone of transport and logistics) faced a hefty 63–65c/litre increase. For operators buying thousands of litres a week, that wasn’t just inconvenient; it was a direct hit on margins.

And remember the June 2025 levy hike? The General Fuel Levy went up 16c for petrol and 15c for diesel. When you add all levies, taxes now make up about a third of the pump price. The AA warned that higher levies during economic strain are inflationary and transporters know it firsthand.

The Real Impact on the Ground

Over June and July, diesel already climbed R1.47/litre, so August’s increase was salt in the wound. Even after some earlier dips this year, diesel remains around 60c/litre pricier than in January. Thin margins are being eroded, and many operators can’t absorb these shocks. As Gavin Kelly of the Road Freight Association pointed out, when transport companies can’t carry the cost, consumers end up footing the bill.

For fleet owners, this means tough choices: pass on surcharges, tighten efficiency, or risk losses. It’s a balancing act no one enjoys.

September: Finally, Some Breathing Room?

There is a glimmer of hope. By mid-August, projections showed September could bring relief:

  • Diesel down by 34–50c/litre

  • Petrol easing by 8–15c/litre

Two factors are working in our favour. First, the rand strengthened to around R17.58/$ . Second, Brent crude slipped into the mid-$60s after running hotter in July. For a 1,000-litre truck tank, a 50c drop means saving R500; a welcome reprieve after months of increases.

The Catch: Uncertainty Rules

Of course, forecasts aren’t guaranteed. The Central Energy Fund’s mid-month data can swing quickly if oil rises or the rand weakens. One geopolitical event or an OPEC production tweak could erase expected cuts overnight. That’s why operators lean on fuel escalation clauses, careful route planning, and constant monitoring because predictability is a luxury no one has anymore.

Bottom Line

August reminded us how quickly costs can spiral, but September offers a chance to breathe. Still, volatility isn’t going anywhere. The smartest move for transporters is to stay informed, plan conservatively, and treat every price cut as temporary relief rather than a permanent fix. Because in South Africa, fuel will always keep fleets and budgets on edge.

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